The government of China, General Administration of Customs, via the state-controlled Xinhua news, has released
data covering its exports of all types of bearings, for January 2009.
Note: China's state-volunteered export data is notoriously inaccurate,
tending to dramatically understate both the quantity and value.
Although the specific numbers may be suspect, the data does offer insight to general trends in
volume, growth, and pricing which have proven valuable in terms of general industry analysis.
For January 2009, the number of bearings exported has been reported as down, and the
drop is somewhat steeper than expected, totaling only 194 million -- more
than a 40% fall from January 2008's 325 million.
| Exports for January 2009
|
| count | 194,430,000 bearings
|
| total value $USD | $138.7 million
|
| average value $USD | $0.713
|
|
|
| Compared to December 2008
|
| count | 218,770,000 bearings
|
| total value $USD | $155.1 million
|
| average value $USD | $0.709
|
|
|
| Compared to November 2008
|
| count | 197,430,000 bearings
|
| total value $USD | $153.5 million
|
| average value $USD | $0.777
|
|
|
| Compared to October 2008
|
| count | 258,040,000 bearings
|
| total value $USD | $176.6 million
|
| average value $USD | $0.684
|
|
|
| Compared to September 2008
|
| count | 280,630,000 bearings
|
| total value $USD | $195.3 million
|
| average value $USD | $0.695
|
As the export data indicates, the global economic slowdown is having
a strong impact on bearing manufacturers in China, masked somewhat by seasonality
in the raw numbers. There are also numerous reports that the 2008 year-end data was subject to many
government "adjustments" needed to show production met levels forecast by central planners.
Although there is some seasonality apparent in the bearing export data supplied,
China's bearing exports are clearly continuing to drop sharply.
The most telling numbers, however, are eBearing.com's own rolling year-on-year figures
for exports. As 2008 wore on, we calculate China's bearing industry -- almost completely
dependent upon exports -- suffered a dramatic slowdown which is reflected in the year-on-year
growth rate from 2007. That crash is clearly continuing into 2009.
| 2008 July | 324,000,000 | YTD : + 14%
|
| 2008 August | 312,000,000 | YTD : + 13%
|
| 2008 September | 281,000,000 | YTD : + 11%
|
| 2008 October | 258,000,000 | YTD : + 10%
|
| 2008 November | 197,000,000 | YTD : + 5.5%
|
| 2008 December | 219,000,000 | YTD : + 2.6%
|
| 2009 January | 194,000,000 | YTD : - 40.1%
|
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